Offtrack

Indias clear and present danger in Afghanistan

by India Blooms News Service/TWF 23 Jun 2014, 10:16 am

The attacks on Indian consulates would continue in Afghanistan, says Sujeet Sarkar who works as an international advisor on governance and civil society and has authored the acclaimed book In search of a new Afghanistan.

In a series of aggressive moves against Indian establishments in Afghanistan, the consulate in western city of Heart came under fire recently. The security sources in Afghan establishment has confirmed that a contingent of Lashkar-e-Taiba hit squad was assigned to take hostages and lay siege on the Indian consulate in Herat. The terrorist attack was planned to coincide with the grand oath ceremony of the NarendraModi government in Delhi on May 26. 

This is the latest in a long line of attacks on Indian establishment and interests, especially embassy and consulates in Afghanistan. In August 2013 a botched bombing against the Indian consulate in the Afghan city of Jalalabad near the border with Pakistan killed nine people, including six children. Two attacks on the Indian Embassy in Kabul in 2008 and 2009 killed 75 people. Along with diplomatic venue, two Kabul guest houses popular among Indians were attacked, in 2010, killing more than six Indians. The previous attacks have been blamed on militants from the Haqqani network, an al-Qaeda-linked group enjoying the patronage of Pakistani military intelligence.

Despite repeated assurance from the Afghan premier, it would be naïve on the part of Indian political leadership to think that the attack on Herat consulate would be the last in Afghanistan. Such attacks would continue as ISI is fighting a proxy war with India, for greater influence and authority in Afghanistan.

The reasons behind the spate of attacks are manifold. India and Pakistan have large strategic stakes in Afghanistan. Pakistan desperately wants the trophy of Afghanistan from the US, as a reward, for allying with the US, in the so-called, “war on terror”. The simmering conflict can therefore be largely attributed to the exigent need for greater control and authority over Afghanistan, in the post US scenario.

The major bone of contention has been the ongoing peace process in Afghanistan. Pakistan wants to muscle in the peace process in Afghanistan with the help of Taleban leaders under the pay roll of ISI. India has vociferously expressed its strategic fear that in the name of engaging with moderate Taleban, the pro ISI Taleban hardliner would be accommodated in the power corridors of Kabul. India’s concern is genuine and purely based on past experiences. Such an engagement would provide political leeway to advance the Pakistan agenda and edge out India from thick of things, in Afghanistan. Should ISI expand their grip over Afghanistan, they would also use the war-torn nation as the backyard for breeding terrorist and jihadi outfit with anti-India agenda.  

Pakistan will however, go to any length to justify that the peace process is not durable unless and until the incumbent Government of Afghanistan accommodates key moderate Taleban leaders, in the power structure of Kabul. Pakistan sees India as the only potential threat to block the peace deal brokered by ISI. India would leave no stone unturned to stop Pakistan from milking the peace process in Afghanistan

One more plausible answer for the attack on the consulate is Kabul’s growing proximity with New Delhi and India’s growing involvement in the Hindukush. India has employed a development kitty of almost 2 billion USD in Afghan projects including roads and power infrastructure, a huge grant, even by international standards. India is the largest civilian donor in Afghanistan, after U.S. and Japan in Afghanistan. In addition to the long-standing historic and cultural ties, India’s development forays in Afghanistan have generated tremendous popular and political good will in the country beleaguered with terrorism and civil strife, spanning over three decades. In fact India, Germany and Japan are the three most popular countries in Afghanistan, as per people’s choice.

India has set up four consulates in the cities of Jalalabad, Kandahar, Herat and Mazar-e Sharif. This has given India the strategic leeway  to ensure its long-term strategic interest in Afghanistan is intact, much to the dismay of Pakistan. Further the increasing soft military ties and cooperation between India and Afghan army is not going down well within the Pakistani army and jihadi forces in the region. They have always resented the South Asian democracy’s rising profile in the war-torn nation.

Pakistan fears that with the growing popularity and influence of India in Afghanistan, India will not only gain greater leverage on strategic matters in Afghanistan, but also play the Baluchistan card, much to their discomfort. Perhaps it needs to be mentioned here that Baluchistan is witnessing a political unrest and upsurge in terrorist activities and has aspirations of a separate country for the Balouchs, with greater autonomy and identity. Pakistan blames India for fanning the Baluchistan unrest and the hidden passion of the Balouch leaders.

Hence ISI will continue to influence Taleban and other extremist outfits like LeT to strike Indian interest in Afghanistan. They will continue to employ their strategic asset in the disgruntled Taleban and extremist outfits against India, in Afghanistan. The Haqqani network of Taleban, led by Mawlawi Jalaluddin Haqqani, has been a constant rabble-rouser against India, in Afghanistan. It is a fact that Haqqani network remains the blue-eyed boy of ISI and the network receives consistent mentoring, guidance and active support from ISI. The survival of this faction depends largely on their continual targeting of Indian interests and establishments in Afghanistan.

Beside these, hitting Indian interest in Afghanistan also allows ISI to make a statement about India in the international arena. This helps them to pitch Kashmir as the key for regional peace, security  and stability. With the Indian security agencies bucking up their effort in taming the extremists outfit operating in Kashmir, Afghanistan is the only place left to make a statement against India.

The timing of the Herat attack also exposes the fault line within Pakistan. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif faces a huge challenge from religious hardliners and extremist forces while dealing with India. These terrorist outfits, who are opposed to any kind of improvement in ties between the two neighbors, want to create a situation where it becomes difficult for the two South Asian countries to bridge their existing gaps. The extremist forces have always thrived on anti-India sentiment and they would agitate against any bonhomie and camaraderie extended by either countries. They would derail any such friendly overtures either by attacking Indian posts in the Indo-Pak border or Indian establishment, abroad, primarily in Afghanistan.

Therefore, for the Indian leadership it will not be easy to secured Indian interest in Afghanistan. At best, the tight security and vigil would help them to thwart away such attacks, as has been the case in the previous three attacks on Indian consulates.